Halloween lands this Friday, but candy aisles are telling a different story this year. According to NielsenIQ, US confectionery sales fell 6.7% in the four weeks ending October 17, after an 11.7% drop in mid-September. Small bags are still growing. Large and extra-large ones are sliding.
The cause has been building for two years: cocoa. West Africa supplies roughly 70% of the world’s cocoa, and poor harvests there pushed prices to a record $10,710 a metric ton in January 2025, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices have come down since, but chocolate makers buy cocoa months, sometimes up to two years, ahead. That relief won’t reach store shelves before Halloween 2027 at the earliest.
The effect on price tags is already visible. An analysis by Groundwork Collaborative and the Century Foundation found Halloween candy prices up more than 15% this year, roughly four times the overall inflation rate. Mondelez sour gummy variety packs cost 39% more than in 2025. Hershey’s Reese’s seasonal packs are up over 23%. A LendingTree survey found 35% of shoppers plan to skip candy altogether this year.
Manufacturers are adjusting. For the first time, Hershey added salty snacks to its Halloween lineup, including fun-sized Pirates Booty and SkinnyPop. Frito-Lay rolled out a Doritos-Cheetos combo called the Fright Night Mix. Some companies are also cutting back on chocolate content, leaning more on fillings and wafers.
Even so, the National Retail Federation still expects Halloween spending to hit $13.5 billion this year, with 96% of shoppers planning to buy sweets. Candy, it seems, is one of the last small indulgences people keep even when they’re tightening the budget everywhere else.